By Mure Dickie in Beijing

Friday, March 07, 2008
 
 
A
senior Chinese official has declared there can be “no wavering” on the policy of limiting the number of children couples can have – days after a colleague said the curbs might be relaxed.

The sharply conflicting statements from National Population and Family Planning Commission leaders have thrown a spotlight on the political and social sensitivities surrounding birth controls in the world's most populous nation.

“Birth planning is a basic national policy that China has stuck to for a long time. There can no wavering, only stability,” Zhang Weiqing, population control commission minister, was reported yesterday as saying.

 



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Mr Zhang's remarks came after one of his vice-ministers, Zhao Baige, said Beijing was considering gradually raising the limits. Ms Zhao said: “This has become a big issue among decision-makers.”

Analysts say the contradictory comments reflect equally conflicting pressures on population planners.

While the demographic, social and economic implications of a rapidly ageing population argue for easing controls, officials fear that sending potential parents the wrong signal could prompt a destabilising baby boom.

Indeed, Mr Zhang gave warning that an estimated 100m Chinese were in their procreational peak period, meaning any policy softening could have dramatic consequences.

Yet, for all his stress on stability, it is clear that Beijing is considering new approaches to what has been a cornerstone of social policy since the 1970s.

“In fact, the government has for a long time been looking into where to go from here,” said Li Jianmin, a population expert at Nankai University.

Among Beijing's most pressing concerns is a looming doubling of the proportion of people over 60 to about one in five by 2030.

China's weak welfare and health systems are ill-equipped to serve an ever-larger army of elderly that will put strains on a national pension fund already facing a shortfall estimated at $350bn (